「repost」I have just spoken with Dr Wang Wenjie of the City University of New York (who is currently working in the American think-tank) on the issue of POTUS's imposition of Chinese tariffs, he said the U.S. will be included in the hit list of Chinese products will be two characteristics: one is a serious threat to U.S. security, such as steel, aluminum and other strategic supplies, China's overcapacity has affected local companies in the United States. Second, almost all of the listed "China's manufacturing 2025" high-end manufacturing projects, such as aviation products, technology products (including some chips), precision equipment, such as to sever the possibility of foreign investment in high-end manufacturing in China. " If companies try to move these products to China for export to the US, they will become non-competitive because of tariffs. The detailed list of this memo will take 15 days to get a preliminary conclusion. It is still being assessed that the US is interested in attracting manufacturing back to the US to set up factories, and therefore tends to consider how much of the amount of components in China to create this ratio problem, if a certain percentage of the Chinese product will be deemed, would be taxed. He thinks Chumpcho is playing a lot of cards, including trade sanctions, dollar policy, South China Sea voyage, security in the US and Japan, direct dialogue with North Korea, arms sales to Taiwan, Indian strategy, CPTPP, U.S.-Macao cooperation. China's bow to the United States is a matter of time. China is a dilemma, and China wants to keep foreign investors, and it must retain foreign investors. On the other hand, China must return a symbolic return to the United States, which is bound to take some American companies to the ground, which will lead to two consequences: fear of foreign investors, a provocation to the United States to further expand trade conflicts. So China's response has been so restrained that it has chosen only U.S. exports, and is not daring to penalize Apple, HP, Dell, Boeing, and so on, as the US punishes Huawei and ZTE. China's response to America's commodities, mainly agricultural products and recycling of scrap metal, is hardly a pain for American manufacturing, which, as the US Treasury secretary said in Washington, is "not Armageddon", It can be said that the United States did not feel that China's return action has any substantial damage. If China launches a full-scale retaliation can only go to the closed doors, which is killing 100 of the 8,000 of the folly, I do not think that the United States in a comprehensive trade war with the U.S. China is still pinning its hopes on verbal promises and greater purchases of the US to send benefits to specific groups in the United States in exchange for Washington's forgiveness and lobbying by interest groups. In a sudden change of cabinet, the Chinese should be aware of a very dangerous signal, which means that the interests of China in the past to the specific groups in the State council system seem to have vanished with the change of personnel and the Hawks in power. 2018.3.24 - K.F. Zhen
【转】剛剛跟紐約城市大學的王文傑博士（他目前在美國智庫工作）交流一下川普加徵中國關稅的問題，他表示美國將列入打擊清單的中國產品將是具有兩個特徵：一是嚴重危害美國的國安，例如鋼鐵、鋁及其他戰略性物資，中國的產能過剩影響到美國的本土企業。二是幾乎所有列入「中國製造2025」的高端製造業項目，例如航空產品、科技產品（含部分芯片）、精密設備等，以此斷絕外商投資中國高端製造業的可能。如果企業試圖將這些產品搬到中國製造再出口到美國將會因為關稅的因素變得毫無競爭力。 這個備忘錄的詳細清單需要15天以後才能有初步結論，目前還在評估，美方有意要吸引製造業回流美國設廠，因而傾向於考量有多少金額的部件在中國製造這個比例問題，如果達到一定比例就被認定為中國產品，將被徵稅。 他認為川普可打得牌非常多，包括貿易制裁、美元政策、南海航行、美日安保、與北韓直接對話、對台軍售、印太戰略、CPTPP、美澳合作等。中國對美低頭是時間問題。 對於中國是兩難的選擇，一方面中國想留住外商，也必須留住外商。另一方面中國又必須象徵性地回擊美國，勢必要拿一些美國企業開鍘，這會導致兩個後果：對外商造成恐慌情緒，對美國方面造成挑釁進一步擴大貿易衝突。所以中國這次的反應極為克制，只選擇了美國本土出口的商品，而不敢像美國懲處華為、中興那樣對蘋果、HP、Dell、波音等祭出懲罰措施。 中國本次回擊美國的商品主要是農產品和回收廢舊金屬材料，這對於美國製造業來說根本沒有一點痛覺，對美國來說這些制裁就像美國財長在華府講得「又不是世界末日」（not end of the earth )，可以說美國方面並沒有感到中國這個回擊動作有什麼實質性傷害。 中國如果展開全面性報復只能走向閉關鎖國，那是殺敵一百自損八千的蠢事，我不認為中國會全面跟美國打貿易戰。中國目前還是寄希望於用口頭承諾和加大對美採購，向美國特定團體輸送利益來換取華府的寬恕和利益團體的遊說。川普此處突然換閣員，讓中國應該是察覺到了很危險的信號，這意味著中國過去向國務院體系中特定團體輸送的利益隨著人事變動和鷹派掌權似乎煙消雲散一場空了。
2018.3.24 鄭凱夫
edit based on Microsoft translator/auto-bot
